Measuring Biases in Expectation Formation
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Intrinsic heterogeneity in expectation formation
We introduce the concept of a Misspecification Equilibrium to dynamic macroeconomics. A Misspecification Equilibrium occurs in a stochastic process when agents forecast optimally given that they must choose from a list of misspecified econometric models. With appropriate restrictions on the asymptotic properties of the exogeneous process and on the feedback of expectations, the Misspecification...
متن کاملExpectation Biases and Context Management with Negative Polar Questions
This paper examines certain distinctive discourse properties of preposed negative yes/no questions (NPQs), like Isn’t Jane coming too?. Unlike other types of polar questions, NPQs ∼p? invariably convey a bias toward a particular answer, where the polarity of the bias is opposite of the polarity of the question: using an NPQ ∼p? necessarily expresses the speaker’s prior expectation that the posi...
متن کاملExpectation Formation in Multi-Agent Design Systems
1.0 Introduction It has become obvious in recent years that design systems need, or at least can benefit from, some type of learning (Duffy 1997). So far the effort to bring learning into design systems has addressed this need in a very specific way. Developers1 have singled out a priori a particular learning target, and have shaped the design system to acquire data for the learning task. Thus,...
متن کاملExpectation Formation in Behavioral Simulation Models
The nature and rationality of expectations are hotly debated in economics and management science. Expectations are usually portrayed in behavioral simulation models and system dynamics as adaptive learning processes. This paper presents a behavioral model of trend expectation formation. The model assumes expectations about the growth rate of a quantity are formed adaptively from the recent grow...
متن کاملEmotions as Weak Biases in Metaphor Formation
The recurrence of certain basic metaphors across diverse times and cultures is an interesting issue in the debate over the form and extent of innate human knowledge. Are the common themes of metaphor and narrative evidence for strong innate human knowledge, or the result of weaker constraints on learning and development? Machine learning has demonstrated that strong conceptual knowledge may be ...
متن کاملذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: SSRN Electronic Journal
سال: 2018
ISSN: 1556-5068
DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3188065